Or, How Small Businesses Live and Die, Predicting the Future
You saw it coming.
You’re my friends, my clients, my business contacts, and I know you saw it long before the Big Boys began to tumble off their high horses.
You’re small, and you sense small changes in the atmosphere like the poor canary in the mine shaft.
The canary knew problems were afoot long before anyone else.
If miners paid close attention, the canary looked sick. Even without that much attention, they’d hear the warning: he stopped singing.
You began calling and writing to VisionPoints with plans and concerns almost a year ago. That’s a heck of an early warning system. Was anyone listening, in the wider world?
Then you got quiet. You stopped calling and emailing with plans and concerns.
Because my small business helps other small businesses grow, we’re pretty sensitive to changes in your business’ health. When things got quiet, we knew what you feared.
When the atmosphere really got toxic, the canary sometimes died.
Big businesses have big budgets to mask big problems, but small businesses cut it close every day. Many stopped trying to grow, when they first sensed small changes in the atmosphere.
Some will survive because they saw the recession coming and tightened their budgets. Maybe not thrive, but survive.
The sad part is, some died because they saw it coming—they tightened the belt too much, and died because they stopped trying to grow.
By the time the big, strong miners are getting sick it’s far too late. Coal miners knew this, and they started acting long before that.
Governments, apparently, don’t.
There’s good news. Now that so many Big Boys are sick, governments around the world are acting.
When this is over there will be fewer Big Boys—and a lot more small businesses.
More canaries to sing when the air is clear and fresh. The ones who survive will be battle-hardened, and the new ones will be fresh and raring to go.
Lately, you’ve been calling and writing to VisionPoints again, making plans for growth. You sense small changes all around. Little birdies, trying to tell us the air is clearing. That’s a heck of an early indicator.
Are you ready to sing?
Grow and be well,
Kelly Erickson
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2 December 2008, 7:14 am
Now I’m going to have that Police song in my head! But you’re right, Kelly. Smaller businesses are often in the vanguard of economic change. The challenge for most is to view a downturn as opportunity squared and press on. The reason is that attrition in your niche will occur, as those who succumb to fear stop marketing and let relationships lapse out of fear and inertia. Great observations in your post!
Betsy’s last blog post…PANIC
2 December 2008, 7:49 am
I wondered where all those damned feathers were coming from… it’s me!
*ahem* tweet tweet tweet tweet
I don’t know – but I have a feeling that the Thursday night Thinkfest at Friar’s house will end up generating much more than a cartoon book one of these days. I can feel it.
-Brett
Brett Legree’s last blog post…week 2 – check up.
2 December 2008, 7:52 am
Betsy,
Woot! You win the prize. I thought it might be all day before anyone noticed that.
It’s hard to see the opportunities—or at least, hard to capitalize on them—at any time, for small biz. There is something new in the air right now, and I’m as sure as I was of problems last fall. The canaries are trying to tell us that they’re ready to seize the day. Great news, I think.
Regards,
Kelly
2 December 2008, 7:54 am
Brett,
My favorite canary!
Oh, yes, between the two of you birds, there’s definitely more than just singing going on.
Tweet away!
Regards,
Kelly
2 December 2008, 8:03 am
Kelly,
That’s very “tweet” of you to say that (sorry, couldn’t resist…) – I’ll tell you, there is so much going on these days and so many opportunities that we’ll have to narrow it down to one or two and then pick the one that will work.
Otherwise, we’ll be running in circles forever
-Brett
Brett Legree’s last blog post…week 2 – check up.
2 December 2008, 10:11 am
The “biggest” canary for me was Ditech. When it stopped singing “Lost another loan to Ditech” on the TV 30 times a day, I had a feeling things were going to start going bad…
~Graham
Graham Strong’s last blog post…What is Creativity?
2 December 2008, 3:46 pm
Brett,
Little birdies running in circles… like Peanuts’ Woodstock?
*Funny picture in my head or Brett and Friar doing loop-de-loops, refusing to choose a direction, while Snoopy scolds.*
Graham,
Now that is a big canary. I never thought of it, but you’re so right on that!
It’s a funny world right now. I’m glad I’m here, soaking up all the change in the air. And still able to sing!
Until later,
Kelly
2 December 2008, 4:37 pm
I think it’s time the canaries busted out of their cages and shat all over the Board of Directors!
(Somethign along the line of HitchCock’s “The Birds”.)
2 December 2008, 6:19 pm
Friar!
Where’ve you been? I imagined you stuck in a snowbank! No snarky email back yesterday, utter silence today re: canaries…
Ah, now I feel better. All is right in my world. Friar has found a way to get goofy at MCE.
Your poor BoD, they get it all the time at The Deep Friar and don’t even know it. You’re not really caged, you just fake it 37.5 hrs/wk.
Later,
Kelly
2 December 2008, 7:33 pm
Kelly,
Exactly… you read my mind, that was the image in my head! I wonder if the “kids these days” would get that.
Well, I know my kids would, because I have every single Charlie Brown special I could find and I play them at the appropriate times.
Which reminds me, I have to see if I can find one of those Charlie Brown trees for my office this year!
-Brett
Brett Legree’s last blog post…viking fridays – fate of norns.
2 December 2008, 7:41 pm
I am a mind reader, it’s a well-known fact!
My kid would get it, but yes, only because of the specials. I hope those specials never go away. They’re so simple and good.
3 December 2008, 1:28 am
I’m not sure if this is true or not, but I remember hearing for the past few years that the reason the Canadian economy isn’t as bad as the US one is that Canada relies more on medium and small businesses rather than large business for its economic growth…
So as long as us little guys can keep it together we can be the engine that keeps the economy moving forward!
Alex Fayle | Someday Syndrome’s last blog post…Success Comes from Slow Change: Leo Babauta Interview
3 December 2008, 7:53 am
@Alex — I haven’t heard that before. I think it likely has more to do with other factors, like our relative lack of debt, until recently the increasing need for raw materials (we are mostly a resource-based economy), and also until recently, our relatively weak dollar.
Yes, weak dollar. Back when it was in around $0.66 to the US dollar, I and other “exporters” were making $1,500 on $1,000 — not bad. On the other hand, nothing says “Buy in Canada” like “your dollar is worthless anywhere else”.
I used to want the dollar to go up, for pride if nothing else. But that 10 years or so that the dollar was so low is one of the best things that could have happened to us. Keeps money in the country, attracts other currencies to the country, and keeps prices low. We were literally the cheapest place in the Western world to buy books, CDs, and magazines thanks to low(er) printing costs and a low dollar.
Then the dollar went to $1.10 — and suddenly I was making $900 on $1,000. I didn’t like that…
Although we are still tied to the US economy, I think we are seeing the affects of those years right now. Lower debt usually means smoother sailing during rough times…
IMHO,
~Graham
Graham Strong’s last blog post…What is Creativity?
3 December 2008, 3:13 pm
Alex,
That is a very cool factoid, if true. We have a huge small business community here in the U.S., but proportionally, I have no idea. I’m going to have to see if I can find out more on that.
Graham,
Ah, I used to love your dollar, ten, fifteen years ago. Or did I love ours? It made trips cheap, anyway. Now nobody’s money makes sense for two weeks straight. I can hardly wait until the air clears completely in the coal mine.
“Nothing says ‘Buy in Canada’ like ‘your dollar is worthless anywhere else.’” SO true. I don’t want isolationism, or trade problems, not at all, but I am all for local focus. We’ve become too isolated from the people and businesses right next next to us. A little community cocooning, business-wise, could be a fabulous new trend.
Until later,
Kelly
3 December 2008, 3:20 pm
Kelly,
It would be interesting if we could all agree to trade time rather than money.
Nobody’s making any more of it, we all (basically) have the same amount for it, so it seems a logical unit of commerce.
Does it matter if I do one hour’s work on your bookkeeping in exchange for you doing one hour’s work shoveling my driveway?
Especially if it would take you 6 hours to do your bookkeeping and me 2 hours to shovel my driveway? In the end, we’re both ahead, and we can go out for beers.
Off to build that commune/pub…
-Brett
Brett Legree’s last blog post…viking fridays – fate of norns.
3 December 2008, 3:52 pm
Brett,
At your pub, could I trade time warming your barstool for Guinness?
Just wondering…
3 December 2008, 7:42 pm
Kelly,
You may definitely do that, especially if you wear your purple boots…
Brett Legree’s last blog post…viking fridays – fate of norns.
3 December 2008, 8:35 pm
LOL!
4 December 2008, 8:34 am
Kelly, astute observations beautifully written. This is exactly why your company is top of mind for me so often, and why I’ve recommended to you others in need of just this kind of insight. I like to think of smaller businesses being low to the ground so they hear the rumblings first. Economists just declared that we have been in a recession, small businesses saw it more than a year ago. We’re already in recovery and seeing a different but bright future.
Karen Swim’s last blog post…Is It Far Better to Give than Receive?
4 December 2008, 9:23 am
Here’s a link to a report on the impact of small business on the Canadian economy: http://www.cabi.ca/industry-canada.php – that’s just small biz – add in the medium sized biz and you likely get a huge number – meaning the big boys who make the most noise aren’t necessarily what’s driving the economy (but that being said if the big boys fell apart how many small businesses would lose their primary clients?).
Alex Fayle | Someday Syndrome’s last blog post…Fear, Unique Pathways & Self-Awareness: Lessons from the Lab-Rats
4 December 2008, 3:06 pm
Alex,
Just what I wanted to read. I compared it with U.S. data briefly just now and discovered:
You can’t compare U.S. and Canadian data.
Canada defines small businesses as under 100 employees, calling 100–500 employee businesses “medium,” and doesn’t have data put together for both small and medium-sized biz, while the U.S. simply calls everything 500 and under “small.” I knew that about the U.S. Small Business Association, but I didn’t know Canada would see it so differently. Go figure.
Hence no way to say how Canada and the U.S. compare. Ah, well.
According to U.S. stats, “small” businesses contribute just over 50% to our non-farm GDP, and constitute over 99% of business ventures. Neat facts, but a 499-employee firm ain’t small to most people, is it? (Some day VisionPoints will be small like that, hehe.)
I wandered all over the CABI site—that’s a very handy resource! I instantly bookmarked it. Thanks!
Later,
Kelly